Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
